12/16/2023 0 Comments About inflation some reasons optimism![]() ![]() ![]() The unemployment rate across all the economies covered by our analysts (and with high-quality labor market data) now stands about 0.5 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level. Solid GDP growth has translated into more-than-solid labor market performance. Goldman Sachs Research was also optimistic about the global economy in 2023 - and the results have exceeded even our own economists’ expectations. The global economy fared better than many economists expected in 2023 And notably, our economists expect US growth to outpace its developed market peers again. In fact, Goldman Sachs Research’s forecasts for GDP growth in 2024 are more optimistic than the consensus for eight of the world’s nine largest economies, as of Nov. Worldwide GDP is forecast to expand 2.6% next year on an annual average basis, compared with the 2.1% consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. “This is an important insurance policy against a recession,” Goldman Sachs Research Chief Economist Jan Hatzius writes in the team’s report titled Macro Outlook 2024: The Hard Part Is Over. Central banks, meanwhile, will have room to reduce interest rates if they’re concerned about the economy slowing. That outlook is based on our economists’ prediction for strong income growth (amid cooling inflation and a robust job market), their expectation that rate hikes have already delivered their biggest hits to GDP growth, and their view that manufacturing will recover. Goldman Sachs Research expects the global economy to outperform expectations in 2024 - just as it did in 2023. ![]()
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